Ongoing reporting on the USA’s massive debt, serious economic problems in at least five European countries, war, revolution and other problems in the Arab world, Afghanistan and Pakistan are said by some to have dampened confidence in property worldwide – and here in SA.
 
One residential property sector leader who, however, still takes a long-term optimistic view is Lanice Steward, MD of Anne Porter Knight Frank.
 
“With over 30 years in the marketing of property,” she said, “I incline to the view that the more severe the downturn, the more positive the eventual upturn usually is.  There is some evidence in SA that our residential property market operates in ten year cycles:  we saw downturns and huge difficulties in getting bonds in the early eighties and mid-nineties followed by big upturns in 2008 to 2009, and in 2010 we were again in a recession.  It seems to me highly likely that we will again be in a positive growth phase from 2012 to 2013.”
 
Pessimistic property watchers, said Steward, tend to forget that it is only two years since the residential market hit rock bottom – and that recoveries take three to four years.
 
“My view is that the first signs of a more optimistic outlook, e.g. more buy-to-rent investors coming in, are now becoming evident.”
 
It is also encouraging that FNB are easing up on their lending criteria.  When one bank does this others often follow suit. The National Credit Act is open to a variety of interpretations but now that the worst of the recession is behind us it is possible that it will be applied with less stringency. 
 
“My feeling has always been that the Act was used by the banks as a reason for being tough on lending in the recessionary conditions.  If we can get back to something like the previous loan conditions, without being irresponsible or careless, there is a host of buyers waiting for an opportunity to get onto the property ladder – or move up it.”
 
For further information contact Lanice Steward on 021 671 9120 or email lanice@anneporter.co.za.